Team Breakdown: Arizona Wildcats

by:
Arizona Guru (Richard Elias)
Email me at: arizona.guru@pac10guru.com

Arizona Wildcats

Pre-Season Ranking (www.sportingnews.com): 
35

Record Last Year: 
 (8-5 overall , 6-3 in conference)

Bowl Game:
Holiday Bowl loser to Nebraska 33-0

Trending up, down, or flat:
Up.

Total Returning Starters:
14 total returning starters. (Defense: 4) (Offense: 10)


Key Returnees:
Offense: Nick Foles QB, Nic Grigsby RB, Juron Criner WR, Colin Baxter C, Adam Grant LT
Defense: Ricky Elmore DE, Brooks Reed DE, Trevin Wade, CB

Key Losses:
Offense: Terrell Turner WR, Delashaun Dean WR
Deffense: Earl Mitchell DT, Vuna Tuihalamaka LB, Xavier Kelly LB, Cam Nelson S, Devin Ross CB

Key Incoming Transfers:
 Defense: The Cats have two outstanding DT transfers competing for a starting spot. They are: Willie Mobley DT (Ohio State) and Jonathan Hollins DT (Tennessee). At least one of them is expected to earn a starting spot at one of the two open positions.
Offense: Arizona has received great news this week in that Dexter Ransom WR (Blinn College, Texas) has become fully eligible to play for the Wildcats this season. Ransom was the #1 rated JUCO wide receiver last year; and at 6’4”- 210lbs he could very well step in for the loss of the Cats’ #2 receiver Delashaun Dean (dismissal). The Arizona wide receiving corps is one of the most talented and deepest in the conference, and the addition of Ransom will only make better and add to their depth.

Key Freshmen Ready to Play:
Offense: Due to the 10 returning starters on O, the only freshman that has a real good chance at sniffing significant playing time would be Jack Baucus TE (redshirt Freshman). In the Spring Game, the sure-handed receiver demonstrated his skills by getting great separation from the defense about 30 yards downfield and then leaping to snag the football in full extension using his entire 6’6” frame.
Deffense: True freshman Marquise Flowers S may demonstrate that he is too valuable to redshirt at the strong safety position if he lives up to his billing as the top recruit in the State of Arizona and U.S. Army All-American.

Under-the-Radar Players Ready for a Breakout Season:
Expect William “Bug” Wright WR to have a breakout junior year. He was also the top kick returner in the Pac-10 last year. Bug should gain most of his yardage on quick strikes over the middle and quick-hitting bubble screens. His quickness and elusiveness remind many Wildcat fans of Mike Thomas (Pac-10 record for most receptions) as he has the ability to break a long play at any time. On defense, look for Lolomana Mikaele DT to anchor the middle of the front-line. His main goal will be to plug holes against any opponents running attack and allow for Arizona’s very talented defensive ends to wreak havoc in the backfield. There’s no doubt he will also get a few sacks and tackles-for-loss of his own.

Players Needing to Step it Up:
The Wildcat Offense needs Nic Grigsby RB to stay injury free this year; as he missed three full games and parts of others due to a shoulder separation last season. Not that Nic is letting the team down, but the gifted running back needs to somehow avoid missing too many carries because of nagging injuries. The tailback appeared to have injured himself on the first carry of the spring game, but coaches believe he has had enough time to heal and will be at 100% by the start of camp on August 5th.   Dominique Austin DE is a junior that has bulked up and regained most of his quickness, but he has to demonstrate a consistent ability to be a reliable run-stopper or he may lose his out to one of the many talented defensive tackles vying for a spot.

Key Position Battles:
While the offense is almost completely set outside of the 4th WR spot, most of the position battles lie on the defensive side of the ball. Linebacker is the biggest question mark for the Cats this year as the position lost all 3 starters to graduation. The current expected starters at linebacker are: Jake Fischer SLB (whom many believe to be the next Marcus Bell or Lance Briggs), Derek Earls MLB, and Paul Vassallo WLB. C. J. Parish SLB, Trevor Erno MLB, and R. J. Young WLB are expected to provide depth while possibly stealing a starting spot if someone falters.

X-Factor:
Coaching could be the difference maker for the Wildcats this year. New quarterbacks coach Frank Scelfo has guided 3 QB’s to the NFL while an assistant coach at Tulane. He has been making a difference in the throwing motions of both Nick Foles (starter) and Matt Scott (back-up). More interestingly, the Cats have replaced Mark Stoops (D-Coordinator now at Florida State) and Sonny Dykes (HC now at Louisiana Tech) with brand new coordinators on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball: Bill Beddenbaugh (Co-Offensive Coordinator), Seth Littrel (Co-Offensive Coordinator) along with Greg Brown (Co-Defensive Coordinator), and Tim Kish (Co-Defensive Coordinator). Head coach Mike Stoops, known for his defensive player development, is in charge of taking a defense with only 4 returning starters and making them very good very quickly.

Fun Fact:
In 1899, the Arizona teams were known as the “Varsity” until they became the Wildcats in 1914. The school colors were sage green and silver until the football team got a deal on some red and blue sweaters in 1900.

Major Injuries:
No major injuries to anyone on the 2-deep chart. Nic Grigsby is expected to be completely healed and ready to go for the start of Fall Camp.

3 Certainties and 3 Question Marks:
Certainties:
1) Arizona is on the up-swing (back to back bowl games and 8-5 records). With a more than and favorable schedule with 7 home games, the Cats should at least equal if not improve upon last year’s record.
2) Led by quarterback Nick Foles, the dangerous Arizona Offense should put up at least 30 points a game this year (27 pts. per game last year).
3) Arizona will win its third game in a row versus their hated in-state rival, Arizona State.
Question marks:
1) Linebackers: Who will start? Will they be able to handle the many talented Pac-10 tailbacks?
2) Can Arizona find two quality defensive tackles to compliment their terrific DE’s?
3) Will Arizona finally lose their “curse” and make it to their first Rose Bowl?

Schedule Toughness:
The Cats have a very favorable schedule this year. 7 home games with match-ups against some of the tougher teams (OSU, USC, Washington, Cal) will give them the inside track in their quest to win the conference title.

Make-or-Break Game:
Nov. 6 @ Stanford. This game could determine the conference champion. Every year these teams play close with the home team having the edge the last two years. Arizona was one game away from the Rose Bowl last year, and this might be their redemption song.

Key 3-game Stretch:
@ Stanford Nov. 6th, USC Nov. 13th, and @ Oregon Nov.30th.
Arizona faces their two toughest road opponents during this 3-game stretch. If the Cats can come away winners against either Stanford or Oregon then they should be in great shape for a title shot. Outside of Oregon State, no one has consistently played better against USC than Arizona over the past few years. The Wildcats are one of only three college football teams to beat USC in the Coliseum under Pete Carol’s tenure; and they did it just last year. So, there’s a great chance Arizona could end up 2-1 after this key 3-game stretch.

Most Challenging Half of the Season:
The final six games of the schedule will be the toughest with home games against Washington, USC and ASU; and roadies being played against UCLA, Stanford and Oregon. Arizona tends to play better come late October and all through November so the Cats should be ready for their tough back-stretch.

Team Overview:
The consensus among prognosticators this year is to again underestimate Arizona. The Cats were picked to finish 8th in the Pac-10 last year and ended up 2nd. Too much emphasis and negativity is being placed on the replacement of the coordinators, in my opinion. Two of the three coordinators are being promoted within the Arizona ranks. They know the systems very well and intend on making very few changes to the effective spread offense and zone defensive scheme. If Arizona’s defensive front 7 can surpass expectations, and if the offense does what they’re expected to do, then this is the best chance Arizona will have at winning the conference in over a decade.

Defensive Overview:
The defense will always be a direct reflection of head coach Mike Stoops no matter who the coordinator is. Every year, Stoops turns 2 and 3 star recruits into all-conference defensive players. Now that Stoops is starting to get 4-star recruits to commit to Arizona, there’s no telling what he can do with some of those current and incoming players. Now that the talent and depth levels are improving, expect this trend to continue for as long as Arizona keeps Mike Stoops in tucson. The linebackers remain the one area that could make or break this team’s overall success. Expect the DB’s to be among the best in the Pac-10 once again with Trevin Wade CB locking down one side of the field and a couple blue-chip safeties battling for the free and strong safety slots (Adam Hall and Marquise Flowers). If the defense comes together they should finish in the conference’s top three in both yardage allowed and points given up. The most interesting dynamic will be the “cheetah” package the coaches are rumored to be installing with four big and fast defensive ends line-up in passing situations.

Front-4 Analysis:
Arizona  has been slow to build up depth with capable strong and fast players on the defensive line during the Mike Stoops era. This has been the major weak spot on the D in years past. Arizona’s strength program led by Corey Edmonds has, over the past couple years, improved the size and strength of the D-line. The depth, although still not great, is much better than seasons prior. Along with Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed, D’Andre Reed is another outstanding defensive end who could start at most other Pac-10 schools. If they get enough help by the DT’s in plugging the gaps, and if Brooks Reed can remain healthy, then Arizona’s front-4 should again be leading the way in sacks and run-stopping ability.

Linebacker Analysis:
This has to be considered the biggest potential weak spot of the overall D. The incoming talent is there, and linebackers coach Tim Kish is known for producing all-conference performers at linebacker. Arizona has two games to get the feet wet of their linebackers before their first real test, Iowa, comes to town. With Fischer, Earls, Vasallo, and Earno likely to start or see major playing time during those first few games, we will all know after the Iowa game if Arizona is going to be a legit title contender or not.

Secondary Analysis:
The secondary returns 1st team all Pac-10 cornerback Trevin Wade and starting strong safety Robert Golden. Marcus Benjamin has earned the other corner position by performing brilliantly when called upon last year. Joe Perkins is battling highly touted Adam Hall for the free safety spot, but that could change when 4-Star recruit Marquise Flowers joins the team in Fall Camp. The secondary will end up being one of the strengths of the defense once the season gets underway.

Offensive Overview:
 The offensive system the players will be running this season will have changed very little from last year. What will be unknown however is how the plays will be called and if having 2 offensive coordinators will benefit the offense or hamper it. Both Litrell and Beddenbaugh have been coaches in the Arizona spread offense system under Sonny Dykes for multiple seasons. The coaches have made it clear that they want to be able to run the ball better in goal line situations now they have two power runningbacks (Greg Nwoko and Taimi Tutogi). They will also throw to the tight end more which should open up the running game even more.

Quarterback Analysis:
Quarterbacking should be much improved from last year as Nick Foles has 9 full games under his belt now. Arizona started the season last year with a competitive position battle, but this year there is no question who the go-to-guy will be. Foles is now one of the top QB’s in the conference and has improved his mechanics over the summer thanks to the addition of QB coach Frank Scelfo. The Wildcats have a very capable back-up who actually beat out Foles last year to start the season. That player is Matt Scott. Scott is more of a multi-threat quarterback with great speed and an average arm. Rumors abound of the “Wildcat” formation being used with Scott from time to time. He may even shift over to wide receiver at times to add a small wrinkle into the “Wildcat” game plan.

O-Line Analysis:
 The line is led by all conference center Colin Baxter and veteran left tackle Adam Grant. The rest have either started or played extensively and are backed by some talented young reserves. This unit should be as good if not better than last year’s squad, which was a conference best in sacks allowed: 13 (10th best Nationally).

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis:
 “Air Zona” is capable of multiple strikes from multiple points of attack. This may be the most talented and deepest group of receivers ever to play for the cats. Juron Criner WR is one of the conferences best returning wide receivers. Arizona loves the tall receivers and he is one of many standing 6’3” or higher. William “Bug” Wright is the perfect short route receiver you want in a spread offense. He can take the ball and go in a hurry. Accompanying them are productive returners David Douglas, David Roberts, and Travis Cobb. Reserves with some good opportunity to play are Travis Cobb and Richard Morrison, but the one gem is JUCO transfer Dexter Ransom. JUCO transfers are always a crap shoot, but smart money is on Ransom to be very productive for the Cats this year. Can you also imagine having Rob Gronkowski as your “Tight End” this year? Too bad Gronk left a year early as he was a scoring machine in the red zone as a freshman and sophomore. There are plans to use the non-Gronks more across the middle this year, and those two tight ends have the talent to put up good numbers in A. J. Simmons and Jack Baucus.

Backfield Analysis:
 Arizona’s depth was tested last year due to injuries. Depth and talent is increased by the additions of freshman Kylan Butler, (r) freshman Daniel Jenkins, and sophomore Taimi Tutogi. Tutogi is a hefty 6’-1” and 258 pounds of devastation and carnage waiting to pound the ball up the middle in short yardage situations. One frustration Cats fans had with Dykes last year was the non-use of Tutogi. Hopefully the new coordinators utilize him more.

Special Teams Analysis: Arizona’s special teams units have consistently been ranked in or near the top 20 in the country over the last several seasons. Keenyn Crier P and Alex Zendejas PK return along with kick off specialist Jason Bondzio. All punt and kick returners come back this year as well. Kick returns were shared by Keola Antolin and Travis Cobb while William “Bug” Wright had a 17.5 yd. punt return average. Special Teams should be a strength for the Cats and they should improve on last year’s #22 ranking.

Team Schedule:
Sep. 3 at Toledo
Sep. 11 The Citadel
Sep. 18 Iowa
Sep. 25 California
Oct. 2 Bye
Oct. 9 Oregon St.
Oct. 16 at Washington St.
Oct. 23 Washington
Oct. 30 at UCLA
Nov. 6 at Stanford
Nov. 13 USC
Nov. 20 Bye
Nov. 26 at Oregon
Dec. 2 ASU

Best Case Scenario:
Offense performs as expected and the defensive question marks are answered very quickly in a good way. The Wildcats get past Toledo, thump The Citadel, and hold Iowa to 14 points in a close win. The next two home games against Cal and Oregon St. go according to plan as the team prevails in both games. Destroying Wazzu, the Cats come home for a very big game against Washington. Arizona gets vengeance from the “shoe” call and send Washington home crying. At 7-0 Arizona heads to UCLA for a tough game. The Cats take it 80 yards with 50 seconds left to win it. Traveling to Stanford for their first true road test, Arizona gets un-Lucky as the Cardinal win by a field goal. Coming home against a forlorn USC team, Arizona enjoys one of its easier victories of the season. The Wildcats then go up to Eugene and beat the Wardrobe Changers in a shoot-out. ASU is nothing but a practice game for…..THE ROSE BOWL!

Worst Case Scenario:
If the coordinators on offense or defense have a problem calling plays and/or making adjustments, things could go wrong and second guessing could possibly creep in. The linebackers and defensive tackles don’t produce and Foles can’t find his rhythm for the majority of the season. Even if the wheels came off though, I have a hard time picturing a losing season with the amount of offensive talent and defensive coaching ability on hand. 7-5 would be a step back, but still good enough for a bowl.

My Prediction on the Pac-10 Final Standings:

1: Arizona
2: Oregon
3: Stanford
4: USC
5: Oregon State
6: Washington
7: California
8: UCLA
9: Arizona State
10: Washington State

by:
Arizona Guru (Richard Elias)
arizona.guru@pac10guru.com


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