Saturday, July 31, 2010

Team Breakdown: Oregon Ducks

by:
Oregon Guru (Evan Kincl)
Email me at: oregon.guru@pac10guru.com

Oregon Ducks

Pre-Season Sporting News Ranking:
11

Last year overall record:
10-3 (8-1)

Bowl Game:
Rose Bowl: Lost to Ohio State 26-17

Trending up, down or flat:  
Anywhere from flat to slightly up.

Total Returning Starters:   
17 (9 offense, 8 defense)

Key Returnees:
HB LaMichael James (1,546 yards rushing, 14 rush TDs)
WR Jeff Maehl (53 catches for 696 yards and 6 TDs)
DE Kenny Rowe (11.5 sacks)
CB Talmadge Jackson (4 INTs)
FS John Boyett (90 tackles, 3 INTs) 
Oregon also returns the entire offensive line from a unit that ranked 7th in the country in rushing, and only allowed 14 sacks.

Key Losses:
QB Jeremiah Masoli
TE Ed Dickson
CB Walter Thurmond
FS TJ Ward
DE Will Tukuafu

Key Incoming Transfers:  
TE Brandon Williams: A JUCO transfer that has impressed in Spring practices and looks to see a lot of playing time.

Key Incoming Freshman:
RB Lache Seastrunk: A lightning fast kid from Texas could enter the year as a primary kick returner, could easily see a few touches on offense as well. 
WR/RB Josh Huff: Enters fall camp taking a lot of snaps at the Tazer position, a flex WR/RB spot.  His speed and versatility could get him on the field early.

Players Ready for a Breakout Season:  
QB Darron Thomas: Reminds a lot of coaches of former Oregon QB Dennis Dixon. Has a tough task of replacing Jeremiah Masoli, but only if he wins the starting job over Sr. Nate Costa in fall camp. 

WR Jeff Maehl: Although he was Oregon’s leading receiver last year, he’s hardly a household name. Expect that to change, as Maehl and his steady hands came on strong at the end of last season and he should challenge for All Pac-10 recognition in his senior year.

CB Cliff Harris: Harris, only a sophomore, spent last season mostly as a reserve due to his perceived lack of discipline and tackling ability.  When he made it onto the field, he often looked like the best corner Oregon had in years; and with Walter Thurmond III graduated, he could challenge for a wide open starting corner spot.

Players who need to step up this season:
WR DJ Davis: Davis isn’t necessarily a bad player, but injuries have really disrupted the career of this talented former 4-star.  He only has 31 career catches, which he’ll need to match or exceed this year alone in order to have the impact needed from a starting wideout.

Key Position Battles:  
QB- Easily the biggest issue with this team. Sr. Nate Costa is listed as the starter right now, but coach Chip Kelly says he and the more mobile Darron Thomas are about equal.

CB- Talmadge Jackson III has the first spot locked down, but any one of So. Cliff Harris, Sr. Anthony Gildon, Fr. Terrance Mitchell, or Fr. Avery Patterson could step in and see significant time in this spot.

X-Factor:
The QB play: This team is loaded with talent and was an early pre-season #4 before Jeremiah Masoli got kicked off the team.  If whoever replaces him plays well, this team has serious Pac-10 championship aspirations, and possibly more.

Fun Fact:  
Oregon typically uses more uniform combinations in one season than most teams will go through in an entire decade.

Major Injuries:
None.

3 certainties and 3 question marks:  
Certainties:
1)     Offensive line play: Oregon returns the entire offensive line two-deep from a very strong unit a year ago.
2)     Running Backs: With a returning 1st team All Pac-10 pick in LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, his lightning fast backup who is also a premier return man, a steady senior in Remene Alston, and two top-15 RBs for incoming freshman (Lache Seastrunk and Dontae Williams), this is easily the deepest position on the team.
3)     Another trip to a bowl game: You can book it right now; the Oregon Ducks will be attending another bowl game this year.  With a team this talented, an FCS opponent AND Wazzu on the schedule, you can bet your life savings on this happening.

Question Marks:
1)     Quarterback play: Again, here we are talking about the quarterbacks.  I don’t want to bore everyone with this subject, but this team can only reach its goals if they receive good play from whoever wins the QB job.
2)     Expectations: Last year, not many people saw Oregon as a serious threat to Pac-10 king USC, especially after the loss to Boise St.  They thrived all year on bouncing back from adversity, but it will be interesting to see how they deal with having a target on their backs.
3)     Defense: Nick Aliotti has had some good defenses over the years, but for Oregon to take the next step, his defenses will have to come close to the dominance of Chip Kelly’s offense.  There is certainly enough returning talent for that to be so.  Oregon lost the Stanford game as well as the Rose Bowl because they couldn’t get the opposing offense off the field.  If that happens again this season, Aliotti could be in trouble.

Schedule Toughness:
Oregon only gets 4 Pac-10 games at home, and has 5 on the road, including Cal, Oregon State, and USC.  They also have an interesting and potentially difficult away game against Tennessee with new coach Derek Dooley.  This does not make for a very favorable schedule for a team that thrives on a raucous Autzen crowd.  Luckily, they get to face FCS opponent Portland State, New Mexico, and have one road game at WSU.

Make-or-Break Game:
Sat. Oct. 2 vs. Stanford:  This game will show whether Oregon is truly a championship caliber team, because if a tough Stanford team comes in and knocks them off for the second year in a row (at home this time), things don’t bode well for their Pac-10 hopes.

Key 3-Game Stretch:
Oct. 30th to Nov. 13th: USC, UW, Cal.  What more needs to be said? These are three of the projected top teams in the Pac-10; how Oregon fares during this stretch could determine their outcome in the conference.

Most Challenging Half of the Season: 
By far,  the second half of the season will be the toughest.  The first half includes games against WSU, New Mexico, Portland State, and Arizona State.  Almost all of the top Pac-10 teams are scheduled for late season showdowns, which could determine the conference race.

Team Overview:  Oregon returns a supremely talented team that won 10 games a year ago.  Most experts have the Ducks pegged for another trip to Rose Bowl, and I’m inclined to agree.  There is simply too much returning talent at key positions with the only real question being quarterback play.  But with star tailback LaMichael James and a veteran offensive line, the new QB’s job should be a lot easier than at most schools.  Regardless of who plays in his system, head coach Chip Kelly has always put points on the board.  The defense has been less reliable, but plays with passion, and has more talent this year than most.  Although there are a few questions, there are certainly more answers.

Defensive Overview:  
Oregon runs an aggressive 4-3 defense with a few 3-4 sets mixed in.  Longtime defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti likes to bring heavy pressure to disrupt running lanes and make the opposing offense one-dimensional. He also favors a smaller, faster lineup on the field that allows him to keep up with no huddle offenses with minimal substitutions.  This approach has been met with varied success over his career.  But for the most part last year the defense was solid, with their stats inflated by having an offense that scored at the speed of light.

Front-4 Analysis:  
Oregon returns DT Brandon Bair and DE Kenny Rowe on the defensive line, a defense which performed decently last year.  It remains an average group until they find a complementary pass-rusher to Rowe, who was outstanding with 11.5 sacks last year.  The depth is not very good, but freshman Ricky Heimuli has a ton of talent and could see early action.

Linebacker Analysis:
This is easily the strongest group of the defense.  They return Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews who have both been consistent starters.  Coaches view the talent on the depth chart to be so deep that they moved Eddie Pleasant (a starter last year) over to safety. Highly touted former 4-star JUCO transfer Bryson Littlejohn is expected to start in his place.

Secondary Analysis:
This unit has the potential to be one of the best in the conference if players step up and play to their talents.  Talmadge Jackson is solid at one corner spot, while FS John Boyett earned freshman All-America honors last year.  Starting SS Eddie Pleasant was a very good LB who the coaches felt comfortable moving to safety.  Versatile All Pac-10 honoree Javes Lewis also returns.  The coaches have done a good job of bringing in great recruits in the secondary the past few years; if some of those players can step up and play well, this group can be very good.

Offensive Overview: 
Oregon runs a no-huddle run-based spread offense.  Offensive Coordinator Mark Helfrich has the title, but the offense is really Head Coach Chip Kelly’s brainchild.  He likes to wear his opponents out with a variety of plays that utilize the speed and conditioning of his players.  Ever since Kelly arrived on campus as the offensive coordinator, he has had this offense rolling at maximum efficiency.  With 9 starters returning, expect that trend to continue.

Quarterback Analysis:
This group could either be very good, or very bad.  Fifth-year senior Nate Costa leads a tight QB race with sophomore Darron Thomas right now, but things could easily change in fall camp.  With Costa’s 3 injuries, Thomas brings more mobility to Oregon’s option offense, but Costa is recognized as the superior passer.  Whoever wins out better play well, or this team could be looking at mid-tier bowl berth.

O-Line Analysis:
One of the strongest groups of the offense, as this unit returns the entire two-deep from last year.  Line Coach Steve Greatwood has mustered excellent line play during his entire tenure at Oregon, and this year, he has a lot to work with.  T Bo Thran, as well as Gs Carson York and Mark Asper are pre-season All Pac-10 picks. Expect the line to consistently open up holes and make the new quarterback’s job a lot easier.

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis: 
Oregon has a pretty average group of receivers with more problems than production.  Jeff Maehl, Drew Davis, and Lavasier Tuinei lead a solid if unspectacular group of receivers.  Maehl has been productive in his career and could challenge for All Pac-10 honors, but the rest have left much to be desired.  Injuries (Davis, Blake Cantu), as well as academic (former 4-stars Tyrece Gaines and Diante Jackson) and disciplinary problems (Jamere Holland and Garrett Embry),  have plagued most of this group; leading to the dismissal of several talented players.  True freshman Keanon Lowe and Josh Huff bring much needed speed to the position.  At tight end David Paulson was solid as a backup last year, and JUCO transfer Brandon Williams was solid in spring practices.

Backfield Analysis: 
This is the best unit on the offense.  LaMichael James is a legitimate Heisman candidate, while Kenjon Barner brings a whole new level of speed to the table.  Running backs coach Gary Russell also has high expectations of true freshman Lache Seastrunk and Dontae Williams.  Remene Alston is an experienced backup.

Special Teams Analysis:  
Kicker Rob Beard and punter Jackson Rice bring big legs to the table, which should help the defense immensely.  Beard’s field goal accuracy remains to be seen, but Rice was solid as a true freshman punter last year, and the two should consistently create good field position.  In the return game, Kenjon Barner is as dangerous as it gets.  He’s a breakaway threat every time he touches the ball, and he can change a game instantly (see; the UCLA game last year where he opened the second half with a touchdown return).

Team Schedule:
Saturday Sep. 4 vs. New Mexico
Saturday Sep. 11 @ Tennessee
Saturday Sep. 18 vs. Portland State
Saturday Sep. 25 @ Arizona State
Saturday Oct. 2 vs. Stanford
Saturday Oct. 9 @ Washington State
Thursday Oct. 21 vs. UCLA
Saturday Oct. 30 @ USC
Saturday Nov. 6 vs. Washington
Saturday Nov. 13 @ California
Friday Nov. 26 vs. Arizona
Saturday Dec. 4 @ Oregon State

Best Case Scenario: 
Honestly, if the quarterback play is as good if not better than last year (no small task, mind you) this team could be playing for the national championship come January.  With 17 returning starters off a 10 win team and promising young players, the talent is all there.  Coach Kelly looks like he’s the real deal, and could take this team to unseen heights.

Worst Case Scenario: 
However, if the quarterback play is sub-par and the right players don’t step up on defense, this team could be looking at an 8-4 or 7-5 regular season and a mid/low-tier bowl berth.  We know the running game will still produce so the offense should still be okay, but it won’t be able to score enough without balance.  Also, if the defense doesn’t play well and the team suffers, look for coordinator Nick Aliotti to be on the hot seat.

My Final Conference Standings Predictions: 
1.      Oregon 
2.      Stanford 
3.      USC 
4.      Oregon State 
5.      California 
6.      Washington 
7.      Arizona 
8.      UCLA 
9.      Arizona State 
10. Washington State

by: (Oregon Guru)  Evan Kincl

Upcoming Article: "Team Breakdown: Oregon State Beavers"
Followed By: "Team Breakdown: Washington Huskies"


Thursday, July 29, 2010

Team Breakdown: Arizona Wildcats

by:
Arizona Guru (Richard Elias)
Email me at: arizona.guru@pac10guru.com

Arizona Wildcats

Pre-Season Ranking (www.sportingnews.com): 
35

Record Last Year: 
 (8-5 overall , 6-3 in conference)

Bowl Game:
Holiday Bowl loser to Nebraska 33-0

Trending up, down, or flat:
Up.

Total Returning Starters:
14 total returning starters. (Defense: 4) (Offense: 10)


Key Returnees:
Offense: Nick Foles QB, Nic Grigsby RB, Juron Criner WR, Colin Baxter C, Adam Grant LT
Defense: Ricky Elmore DE, Brooks Reed DE, Trevin Wade, CB

Key Losses:
Offense: Terrell Turner WR, Delashaun Dean WR
Deffense: Earl Mitchell DT, Vuna Tuihalamaka LB, Xavier Kelly LB, Cam Nelson S, Devin Ross CB

Key Incoming Transfers:
 Defense: The Cats have two outstanding DT transfers competing for a starting spot. They are: Willie Mobley DT (Ohio State) and Jonathan Hollins DT (Tennessee). At least one of them is expected to earn a starting spot at one of the two open positions.
Offense: Arizona has received great news this week in that Dexter Ransom WR (Blinn College, Texas) has become fully eligible to play for the Wildcats this season. Ransom was the #1 rated JUCO wide receiver last year; and at 6’4”- 210lbs he could very well step in for the loss of the Cats’ #2 receiver Delashaun Dean (dismissal). The Arizona wide receiving corps is one of the most talented and deepest in the conference, and the addition of Ransom will only make better and add to their depth.

Key Freshmen Ready to Play:
Offense: Due to the 10 returning starters on O, the only freshman that has a real good chance at sniffing significant playing time would be Jack Baucus TE (redshirt Freshman). In the Spring Game, the sure-handed receiver demonstrated his skills by getting great separation from the defense about 30 yards downfield and then leaping to snag the football in full extension using his entire 6’6” frame.
Deffense: True freshman Marquise Flowers S may demonstrate that he is too valuable to redshirt at the strong safety position if he lives up to his billing as the top recruit in the State of Arizona and U.S. Army All-American.

Under-the-Radar Players Ready for a Breakout Season:
Expect William “Bug” Wright WR to have a breakout junior year. He was also the top kick returner in the Pac-10 last year. Bug should gain most of his yardage on quick strikes over the middle and quick-hitting bubble screens. His quickness and elusiveness remind many Wildcat fans of Mike Thomas (Pac-10 record for most receptions) as he has the ability to break a long play at any time. On defense, look for Lolomana Mikaele DT to anchor the middle of the front-line. His main goal will be to plug holes against any opponents running attack and allow for Arizona’s very talented defensive ends to wreak havoc in the backfield. There’s no doubt he will also get a few sacks and tackles-for-loss of his own.

Players Needing to Step it Up:
The Wildcat Offense needs Nic Grigsby RB to stay injury free this year; as he missed three full games and parts of others due to a shoulder separation last season. Not that Nic is letting the team down, but the gifted running back needs to somehow avoid missing too many carries because of nagging injuries. The tailback appeared to have injured himself on the first carry of the spring game, but coaches believe he has had enough time to heal and will be at 100% by the start of camp on August 5th.   Dominique Austin DE is a junior that has bulked up and regained most of his quickness, but he has to demonstrate a consistent ability to be a reliable run-stopper or he may lose his out to one of the many talented defensive tackles vying for a spot.

Key Position Battles:
While the offense is almost completely set outside of the 4th WR spot, most of the position battles lie on the defensive side of the ball. Linebacker is the biggest question mark for the Cats this year as the position lost all 3 starters to graduation. The current expected starters at linebacker are: Jake Fischer SLB (whom many believe to be the next Marcus Bell or Lance Briggs), Derek Earls MLB, and Paul Vassallo WLB. C. J. Parish SLB, Trevor Erno MLB, and R. J. Young WLB are expected to provide depth while possibly stealing a starting spot if someone falters.

X-Factor:
Coaching could be the difference maker for the Wildcats this year. New quarterbacks coach Frank Scelfo has guided 3 QB’s to the NFL while an assistant coach at Tulane. He has been making a difference in the throwing motions of both Nick Foles (starter) and Matt Scott (back-up). More interestingly, the Cats have replaced Mark Stoops (D-Coordinator now at Florida State) and Sonny Dykes (HC now at Louisiana Tech) with brand new coordinators on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball: Bill Beddenbaugh (Co-Offensive Coordinator), Seth Littrel (Co-Offensive Coordinator) along with Greg Brown (Co-Defensive Coordinator), and Tim Kish (Co-Defensive Coordinator). Head coach Mike Stoops, known for his defensive player development, is in charge of taking a defense with only 4 returning starters and making them very good very quickly.

Fun Fact:
In 1899, the Arizona teams were known as the “Varsity” until they became the Wildcats in 1914. The school colors were sage green and silver until the football team got a deal on some red and blue sweaters in 1900.

Major Injuries:
No major injuries to anyone on the 2-deep chart. Nic Grigsby is expected to be completely healed and ready to go for the start of Fall Camp.

3 Certainties and 3 Question Marks:
Certainties:
1) Arizona is on the up-swing (back to back bowl games and 8-5 records). With a more than and favorable schedule with 7 home games, the Cats should at least equal if not improve upon last year’s record.
2) Led by quarterback Nick Foles, the dangerous Arizona Offense should put up at least 30 points a game this year (27 pts. per game last year).
3) Arizona will win its third game in a row versus their hated in-state rival, Arizona State.
Question marks:
1) Linebackers: Who will start? Will they be able to handle the many talented Pac-10 tailbacks?
2) Can Arizona find two quality defensive tackles to compliment their terrific DE’s?
3) Will Arizona finally lose their “curse” and make it to their first Rose Bowl?

Schedule Toughness:
The Cats have a very favorable schedule this year. 7 home games with match-ups against some of the tougher teams (OSU, USC, Washington, Cal) will give them the inside track in their quest to win the conference title.

Make-or-Break Game:
Nov. 6 @ Stanford. This game could determine the conference champion. Every year these teams play close with the home team having the edge the last two years. Arizona was one game away from the Rose Bowl last year, and this might be their redemption song.

Key 3-game Stretch:
@ Stanford Nov. 6th, USC Nov. 13th, and @ Oregon Nov.30th.
Arizona faces their two toughest road opponents during this 3-game stretch. If the Cats can come away winners against either Stanford or Oregon then they should be in great shape for a title shot. Outside of Oregon State, no one has consistently played better against USC than Arizona over the past few years. The Wildcats are one of only three college football teams to beat USC in the Coliseum under Pete Carol’s tenure; and they did it just last year. So, there’s a great chance Arizona could end up 2-1 after this key 3-game stretch.

Most Challenging Half of the Season:
The final six games of the schedule will be the toughest with home games against Washington, USC and ASU; and roadies being played against UCLA, Stanford and Oregon. Arizona tends to play better come late October and all through November so the Cats should be ready for their tough back-stretch.

Team Overview:
The consensus among prognosticators this year is to again underestimate Arizona. The Cats were picked to finish 8th in the Pac-10 last year and ended up 2nd. Too much emphasis and negativity is being placed on the replacement of the coordinators, in my opinion. Two of the three coordinators are being promoted within the Arizona ranks. They know the systems very well and intend on making very few changes to the effective spread offense and zone defensive scheme. If Arizona’s defensive front 7 can surpass expectations, and if the offense does what they’re expected to do, then this is the best chance Arizona will have at winning the conference in over a decade.

Defensive Overview:
The defense will always be a direct reflection of head coach Mike Stoops no matter who the coordinator is. Every year, Stoops turns 2 and 3 star recruits into all-conference defensive players. Now that Stoops is starting to get 4-star recruits to commit to Arizona, there’s no telling what he can do with some of those current and incoming players. Now that the talent and depth levels are improving, expect this trend to continue for as long as Arizona keeps Mike Stoops in tucson. The linebackers remain the one area that could make or break this team’s overall success. Expect the DB’s to be among the best in the Pac-10 once again with Trevin Wade CB locking down one side of the field and a couple blue-chip safeties battling for the free and strong safety slots (Adam Hall and Marquise Flowers). If the defense comes together they should finish in the conference’s top three in both yardage allowed and points given up. The most interesting dynamic will be the “cheetah” package the coaches are rumored to be installing with four big and fast defensive ends line-up in passing situations.

Front-4 Analysis:
Arizona  has been slow to build up depth with capable strong and fast players on the defensive line during the Mike Stoops era. This has been the major weak spot on the D in years past. Arizona’s strength program led by Corey Edmonds has, over the past couple years, improved the size and strength of the D-line. The depth, although still not great, is much better than seasons prior. Along with Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed, D’Andre Reed is another outstanding defensive end who could start at most other Pac-10 schools. If they get enough help by the DT’s in plugging the gaps, and if Brooks Reed can remain healthy, then Arizona’s front-4 should again be leading the way in sacks and run-stopping ability.

Linebacker Analysis:
This has to be considered the biggest potential weak spot of the overall D. The incoming talent is there, and linebackers coach Tim Kish is known for producing all-conference performers at linebacker. Arizona has two games to get the feet wet of their linebackers before their first real test, Iowa, comes to town. With Fischer, Earls, Vasallo, and Earno likely to start or see major playing time during those first few games, we will all know after the Iowa game if Arizona is going to be a legit title contender or not.

Secondary Analysis:
The secondary returns 1st team all Pac-10 cornerback Trevin Wade and starting strong safety Robert Golden. Marcus Benjamin has earned the other corner position by performing brilliantly when called upon last year. Joe Perkins is battling highly touted Adam Hall for the free safety spot, but that could change when 4-Star recruit Marquise Flowers joins the team in Fall Camp. The secondary will end up being one of the strengths of the defense once the season gets underway.

Offensive Overview:
 The offensive system the players will be running this season will have changed very little from last year. What will be unknown however is how the plays will be called and if having 2 offensive coordinators will benefit the offense or hamper it. Both Litrell and Beddenbaugh have been coaches in the Arizona spread offense system under Sonny Dykes for multiple seasons. The coaches have made it clear that they want to be able to run the ball better in goal line situations now they have two power runningbacks (Greg Nwoko and Taimi Tutogi). They will also throw to the tight end more which should open up the running game even more.

Quarterback Analysis:
Quarterbacking should be much improved from last year as Nick Foles has 9 full games under his belt now. Arizona started the season last year with a competitive position battle, but this year there is no question who the go-to-guy will be. Foles is now one of the top QB’s in the conference and has improved his mechanics over the summer thanks to the addition of QB coach Frank Scelfo. The Wildcats have a very capable back-up who actually beat out Foles last year to start the season. That player is Matt Scott. Scott is more of a multi-threat quarterback with great speed and an average arm. Rumors abound of the “Wildcat” formation being used with Scott from time to time. He may even shift over to wide receiver at times to add a small wrinkle into the “Wildcat” game plan.

O-Line Analysis:
 The line is led by all conference center Colin Baxter and veteran left tackle Adam Grant. The rest have either started or played extensively and are backed by some talented young reserves. This unit should be as good if not better than last year’s squad, which was a conference best in sacks allowed: 13 (10th best Nationally).

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis:
 “Air Zona” is capable of multiple strikes from multiple points of attack. This may be the most talented and deepest group of receivers ever to play for the cats. Juron Criner WR is one of the conferences best returning wide receivers. Arizona loves the tall receivers and he is one of many standing 6’3” or higher. William “Bug” Wright is the perfect short route receiver you want in a spread offense. He can take the ball and go in a hurry. Accompanying them are productive returners David Douglas, David Roberts, and Travis Cobb. Reserves with some good opportunity to play are Travis Cobb and Richard Morrison, but the one gem is JUCO transfer Dexter Ransom. JUCO transfers are always a crap shoot, but smart money is on Ransom to be very productive for the Cats this year. Can you also imagine having Rob Gronkowski as your “Tight End” this year? Too bad Gronk left a year early as he was a scoring machine in the red zone as a freshman and sophomore. There are plans to use the non-Gronks more across the middle this year, and those two tight ends have the talent to put up good numbers in A. J. Simmons and Jack Baucus.

Backfield Analysis:
 Arizona’s depth was tested last year due to injuries. Depth and talent is increased by the additions of freshman Kylan Butler, (r) freshman Daniel Jenkins, and sophomore Taimi Tutogi. Tutogi is a hefty 6’-1” and 258 pounds of devastation and carnage waiting to pound the ball up the middle in short yardage situations. One frustration Cats fans had with Dykes last year was the non-use of Tutogi. Hopefully the new coordinators utilize him more.

Special Teams Analysis: Arizona’s special teams units have consistently been ranked in or near the top 20 in the country over the last several seasons. Keenyn Crier P and Alex Zendejas PK return along with kick off specialist Jason Bondzio. All punt and kick returners come back this year as well. Kick returns were shared by Keola Antolin and Travis Cobb while William “Bug” Wright had a 17.5 yd. punt return average. Special Teams should be a strength for the Cats and they should improve on last year’s #22 ranking.

Team Schedule:
Sep. 3 at Toledo
Sep. 11 The Citadel
Sep. 18 Iowa
Sep. 25 California
Oct. 2 Bye
Oct. 9 Oregon St.
Oct. 16 at Washington St.
Oct. 23 Washington
Oct. 30 at UCLA
Nov. 6 at Stanford
Nov. 13 USC
Nov. 20 Bye
Nov. 26 at Oregon
Dec. 2 ASU

Best Case Scenario:
Offense performs as expected and the defensive question marks are answered very quickly in a good way. The Wildcats get past Toledo, thump The Citadel, and hold Iowa to 14 points in a close win. The next two home games against Cal and Oregon St. go according to plan as the team prevails in both games. Destroying Wazzu, the Cats come home for a very big game against Washington. Arizona gets vengeance from the “shoe” call and send Washington home crying. At 7-0 Arizona heads to UCLA for a tough game. The Cats take it 80 yards with 50 seconds left to win it. Traveling to Stanford for their first true road test, Arizona gets un-Lucky as the Cardinal win by a field goal. Coming home against a forlorn USC team, Arizona enjoys one of its easier victories of the season. The Wildcats then go up to Eugene and beat the Wardrobe Changers in a shoot-out. ASU is nothing but a practice game for…..THE ROSE BOWL!

Worst Case Scenario:
If the coordinators on offense or defense have a problem calling plays and/or making adjustments, things could go wrong and second guessing could possibly creep in. The linebackers and defensive tackles don’t produce and Foles can’t find his rhythm for the majority of the season. Even if the wheels came off though, I have a hard time picturing a losing season with the amount of offensive talent and defensive coaching ability on hand. 7-5 would be a step back, but still good enough for a bowl.

My Prediction on the Pac-10 Final Standings:

1: Arizona
2: Oregon
3: Stanford
4: USC
5: Oregon State
6: Washington
7: California
8: UCLA
9: Arizona State
10: Washington State

by:
Arizona Guru (Richard Elias)
arizona.guru@pac10guru.com


Upcoming Article: "Team Breakdown: Oregon Ducks"
Followed By: "Team Breakdown: Oregon State Beavers"

Sunday, July 25, 2010

2010 Pac-10 Football Predictions

About Time!

Fall football camp will open up in the next couple weeks for all Pac-10 Teams, and one of the more wide-open and highly anticipated Pac-10 College Football Seasons is less than 40 days away. With USC nothing more than an asterisk and with the unsurprising expulsion of Jeremiah Masoli from the Oregon Football Team, the Rose Bowl will undoubtedly be represented by someone other the aforementioned two teams.

So without further adieu, here is an objective and non-biased prediction on the 2010 Pac-10 College Football final league standings. (Over the next couple of weeks, a full breakdown of each school will be published in the order of their predicted finish).

1) Arizona Wildcats
(Finished 2nd last year)

-Why they'll finish 1st: With the conference's most prolific offense led by an experienced Nick Foles (Junior), stable of running backs with speed (Nic Grigsby/Keola Antolin) and power (Greg Nwoko/Taimi Tutogi), as well as a versatile and explosive wide receiving corps anchored by the conference's top receiver, Juron Criner; Arizona will light up the scoreboard all year long. Though the defense may be young and some inexperience exists in key positions, the Cats will always have a good to great defense with Mike Stoops as thier head coach. They bring back the conference's best defensive end combo in last year's sack leader, Ricky Elmore, and his DE teammate Brooks Reed (whom many believe is more talented than Elmore but spent most of last season injured). When adding some interior D-Line transfers from Ohio State and Tennessee, and blue-chip Secondary recruits (Adam Hall and Marquise Flowers), the Cats will have a defense better than last year's squad. The final reason Arizona will go to the Rose Bowl is their sent-from-heaven schedule. Arizona will have 7 home games this year with their most difficult games at home (Oregon State, USC, Cal, Arizona State, Washington). Had they been faced with a tougher schedule, then they might have been ranked lower than 1st.

2) Oregon Ducks
(Finished 1st last year)

-Why they'll finish 2nd: With 9 returning starters on an already good defense, and the electric LaMichael James at tailback, the Ducks will have yet another great season. Keeping the Ducks from repeating as Pac-10 Champs is, of course, the loss of QB Jeremiah Masoli. It's unbelievable how people think that Nate Costa or Darron Thomas can somehow, with absolutely no real experience, come in and replace Jeremiah Masoli and expect another Rose Bowl. Quarterback is the most difficult and most important position on the field. There's no way Costa or Thomas can compare to the athletic or play-making ability of Masoli. Oregon's schedule is in their favor however, with Arizona, Stanford, Washington, and UCLA all coming to town. The Ducks are still very loaded and will win most of their games even without Masoli.

3) Oregon State Beavers
(Finished 3rd last year)

-Why they'll finish 3rd: Although the Beavers open with a brutal 6-game stretch, they have enough depth and and talent to come away in decent shape and coast through their final 6 games. Nothing more needs to be said about the Quizzes and their incredible talent. Also, with 8 returning starters and 4 of 5 offensive lineman coming back, the Beavers will give fits to all of their foes this year. However, with an unproven and inexperienced quarterback, (Ryan Katz, So.) leading the Beavers into 2010, there's no way they can be the kings of Pac-10 Football this year. The Beaver defense is stout as usual, but many answers still remain as the secondary and front 4 need to improve this year.

4) Washington Huskies
(Finished 7th last year)

-Why they'll finish 4th: When you have the conference's most athletic and exciting quarterback on your team, Jake Locker, you better finish 5th or better even if you only have average talent around said quarterback. With all 11 starters returning on offense and a good crop of incoming freshman, the Dawgs will finally get back to playing in a post-season football game. The triple-threat of Locker, Polk (RB), and Kearse (WR), will frighten D-Coordinators all season long. Unfortunately, the Dawgs have 4 very difficult conference road games, and they will probably only win one of them (at California). Too bad UW doesn't have Locker for a couple more seasons as this will be their best season for a while.

5) Stanford Cardinal
(Finished 4th last year)

-Why they'll finish 4th: You can have all the Luck and Owusu you want, but without Gerhart anchoring the offense, Stanford will not finish better than 5th. As Andrew Luck gets major props and hype going to this season, deservedly so I must add; it is insanity to think that he will guide them to a Rose Bowl or 2nd place finish as some people are predicting. Toby Gerhart was the Stanford Offense last year. All the major pass plays were setup via the play-action, and without Gerhart to fear, the play-action will not be nearly as effective this season. Also, don't expect easy red zone touchdowns anymore as Gerhart garnered most of those TD's for the Cardinal. Stanford's D also loses some key players (Ekom Udofia, DE and Will Powers, LB) which will really hurt this year's defensive expectations. Standord's schedule is slightly difficult as they must play Oregon, Cal, and Washington on the road.

6) California Golden Bears
(Finished 6th last year)

Why they'll finish 6th: An experienced Kevin Riley comes back to hand the ball off to the explosive Shane Vareen, but an underwhelming receiving corps and no Jahvid Best to score TD's will lead to Jeff Tedford having an extremely hot seat at season's end. Tedford has had one great season, but just cannot convert amazing talent into season long success. The Bears bring back only 6 starters on defense this year, and those starters are average at their positions. The one bright spot in the Bear outlook is that they get first crack at soon-to-be-conference-foe Colorado in Week 2.

7) UCLA Bruins
(Finished 8th last year)

Why they'll finish 7th: With only 13 total returning starters to a team that was less than good last year, the Bruins will clamor for wins this season as they have one of the tougher schedules in the league. In a conference with several outstanding quarterbacks (Foles, Luck, Locker, Barkley), Kevin Prince will not be one of them as he leads a boring UCLA Offense to minimal success this year. Until Neuheisel can have 3 more recruiting years under his belt, the Bruins will continue to finish in the bottom half of the conference.

8) Arizona State Sun Devils
(Finished 9th last year)

Why they'll finish 8th this year: Why is it that ASU can't compete in football? Answer: No talent or depth on the offensive line...which is really only the tip of the iceberg. Letting Dirk Koetter go was probably the dumbest thing Lisa Love (the AD) could have done when she first took over. The year Koetter was fired he was just starting to get his kids and his system into place, hence their Holiday Bowl appearance in Dennis Erickson's first year as head coach. Unfortunately, with no real options at Quarterback, a brutal schedule, and an O-Line that seems to have a new injured player every week this spring/summer; there is no real hope for Sun Devil fans this year or in the near future.

9) Washington State Cougars
(Finished 10th last year)

Why they'll finish 9th this year: The Cougars should really be listed at 10th, but since USC is nothing more than an asterisk and a lame-duck this year, the Cougs must be placed 9th by default. With the conference's worst offense and worst defense last year, WSU cannot expect to win more than one game...and that's really asking a lot because Montana State isn't a pushover. I really like Washington State's new coach, and they have shown in the past that success is possible in Pullman. Just not this year or for the next 4 or 5 years until their program gets an overhaul and re-stocking of new recruits.

*10) USC Trojans
(Finished 5th last year)

Why they'll finish *10th this year: Ahhh the asterisk. Poor USC. The conference as a whole really does get more pub and respectability when the Trojans are able to play in bowl games. Even without the asterisk though, the Trojans probably would have only finished 4th this year. Barkley is good but will not ever be great. The defense was shaky last year and won't improve much this season. The offense is probably going to be a little better with Barkley having experience now. Sadly for the Trojans and their fan-base though is the stark reality that after the bowl ban is lifted the cupboard will be bearer than it's been in years, and it will take another 3 or 4 years of Kiffin recruiting to get the Trojans back...and when they do I'm sure they will undoubtedly be title contenders again.

Upcoming article:  "Team Breakdown: Arizona Wildcats"
Followed by: "Team Breakdown: Oregon Ducks"

Best,
 Pac-10 Guru