Team Breakdown: Oregon Ducks

by:
Oregon Guru (Evan Kincl)
Email me at: oregon.guru@pac10guru.com

Oregon Ducks

Pre-Season Sporting News Ranking:

11

Last year overall record:

10-3 (8-1)

Bowl Game:

Rose Bowl: Lost to Ohio State 26-17

Trending up, down or flat:  

Anywhere from flat to slightly up.

Total Returning Starters:   

17 (9 offense, 8 defense)

Key Returnees:

HB LaMichael James (1,546 yards rushing, 14 rush TDs)

WR Jeff Maehl (53 catches for 696 yards and 6 TDs)

DE Kenny Rowe (11.5 sacks)

CB Talmadge Jackson (4 INTs)

FS John Boyett (90 tackles, 3 INTs) 

Oregon also returns the entire offensive line from a unit that ranked 7^th in the country in rushing, and only allowed 14 sacks.

Key Losses:

QB Jeremiah Masoli

TE Ed Dickson

CB Walter Thurmond

FS TJ Ward

DE Will Tukuafu

Key Incoming Transfers:  

TE Brandon Williams: A JUCO transfer that has impressed in Spring practices and looks to see a lot of playing time.

Key Incoming Freshman:

RB Lache Seastrunk: A lightning fast kid from Texas could enter the year as a primary kick returner, could easily see a few touches on offense as well. 

WR/RB Josh Huff: Enters fall camp taking a lot of snaps at the Tazer position, a flex WR/RB spot.  His speed and versatility could get him on the field early.

Players Ready for a Breakout Season:  

QB Darron Thomas: Reminds a lot of coaches of former Oregon QB Dennis Dixon. Has a tough task of replacing Jeremiah Masoli, but only if he wins the starting job over Sr. Nate Costa in fall camp. 

WR Jeff Maehl: Although he was Oregon’s leading receiver last year, he’s hardly a household name. Expect that to change, as Maehl and his steady hands came on strong at the end of last season and he should challenge for All Pac-10 recognition in his senior year.

CB Cliff Harris: Harris, only a sophomore, spent last season mostly as a reserve due to his perceived lack of discipline and tackling ability.  When he made it onto the field, he often looked like the best corner Oregon had in years; and with Walter Thurmond III graduated, he could challenge for a wide open starting corner spot.

Players who need to step up this season:

WR DJ Davis: Davis isn’t necessarily a bad player, but injuries have really disrupted the career of this talented former 4-star.  He only has 31 career catches, which he’ll need to match or exceed this year alone in order to have the impact needed from a starting wideout.

Key Position Battles:  

QB- Easily the biggest issue with this team. Sr. Nate Costa is listed as the starter right now, but coach Chip Kelly says he and the more mobile Darron Thomas are about equal.

CB- Talmadge Jackson III has the first spot locked down, but any one of So. Cliff Harris, Sr. Anthony Gildon, Fr. Terrance Mitchell, or Fr. Avery Patterson could step in and see significant time in this spot.

X-Factor:

The QB play: This team is loaded with talent and was an early pre-season #4 before Jeremiah Masoli got kicked off the team.  If whoever replaces him plays well, this team has serious Pac-10 championship aspirations, and possibly more.

Fun Fact:  

Oregon typically uses more uniform combinations in one season than most teams will go through in an entire decade.

Major Injuries:

None.

3 certainties and 3 question marks:  

Certainties:

1)     Offensive line play: Oregon returns the entire offensive line two-deep from a very strong unit a year ago.

2)     Running Backs: With a returning 1^st team All Pac-10 pick in LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, his lightning fast backup who is also a premier return man, a steady senior in Remene Alston, and two top-15 RBs for incoming freshman (Lache Seastrunk and Dontae Williams), this is easily the deepest position on the team.

3)     Another trip to a bowl game: You can book it right now; the Oregon Ducks will be attending another bowl game this year.  With a team this talented, an FCS opponent AND Wazzu on the schedule, you can bet your life savings on this happening.

Question Marks:

1)     Quarterback play: Again, here we are talking about the quarterbacks.  I don’t want to bore everyone with this subject, but this team can only reach its goals if they receive good play from whoever wins the QB job.

2)     Expectations: Last year, not many people saw Oregon as a serious threat to Pac-10 king USC, especially after the loss to Boise St.  They thrived all year on bouncing back from adversity, but it will be interesting to see how they deal with having a target on their backs.

3)     Defense: Nick Aliotti has had some good defenses over the years, but for Oregon to take the next step, his defenses will have to come close to the dominance of Chip Kelly’s offense.  There is certainly enough returning talent for that to be so.  Oregon lost the Stanford game as well as the Rose Bowl because they couldn’t get the opposing offense off the field.  If that happens again this season, Aliotti could be in trouble.

Schedule Toughness:

Oregon only gets 4 Pac-10 games at home, and has 5 on the road, including Cal, Oregon State, and USC.  They also have an interesting and potentially difficult away game against Tennessee with new coach Derek Dooley.  This does not make for a very favorable schedule for a team that thrives on a raucous Autzen crowd.  Luckily, they get to face FCS opponent Portland State, New Mexico, and have one road game at WSU.

Make-or-Break Game:

Sat. Oct. 2 vs. Stanford:  This game will show whether Oregon is truly a championship caliber team, because if a tough Stanford team comes in and knocks them off for the second year in a row (at home this time), things don’t bode well for their Pac-10 hopes.

Key 3-Game Stretch:

Oct. 30^th to Nov. 13^th: USC, UW, Cal.  What more needs to be said? These are three of the projected top teams in the Pac-10; how Oregon fares during this stretch could determine their outcome in the conference.

Most Challenging Half of the Season: 

By far,  the second half of the season will be the toughest.  The first half includes games against WSU, New Mexico, Portland State, and Arizona State.  Almost all of the top Pac-10 teams are scheduled for late season showdowns, which could determine the conference race.

Team Overview:  Oregon returns a supremely talented team that won 10 games a year ago.  Most experts have the Ducks pegged for another trip to Rose Bowl, and I’m inclined to agree.  There is simply too much returning talent at key positions with the only real question being quarterback play.  But with star tailback LaMichael James and a veteran offensive line, the new QB’s job should be a lot easier than at most schools.  Regardless of who plays in his system, head coach Chip Kelly has always put points on the board.  The defense has been less reliable, but plays with passion, and has more talent this year than most.  Although there are a few questions, there are certainly more answers.

Defensive Overview:  

Oregon runs an aggressive 4-3 defense with a few 3-4 sets mixed in.  Longtime defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti likes to bring heavy pressure to disrupt running lanes and make the opposing offense one-dimensional. He also favors a smaller, faster lineup on the field that allows him to keep up with no huddle offenses with minimal substitutions.  This approach has been met with varied success over his career.  But for the most part last year the defense was solid, with their stats inflated by having an offense that scored at the speed of light.

Front-4 Analysis:  

Oregon returns DT Brandon Bair and DE Kenny Rowe on the defensive line, a defense which performed decently last year.  It remains an average group until they find a complementary pass-rusher to Rowe, who was outstanding with 11.5 sacks last year.  The depth is not very good, but freshman Ricky Heimuli has a ton of talent and could see early action.

Linebacker Analysis:

This is easily the strongest group of the defense.  They return Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews who have both been consistent starters.  Coaches view the talent on the depth chart to be so deep that they moved Eddie Pleasant (a starter last year) over to safety. Highly touted former 4-star JUCO transfer Bryson Littlejohn is expected to start in his place.

Secondary Analysis:

This unit has the potential to be one of the best in the conference if players step up and play to their talents.  Talmadge Jackson is solid at one corner spot, while FS John Boyett earned freshman All-America honors last year.  Starting SS Eddie Pleasant was a very good LB who the coaches felt comfortable moving to safety.  Versatile All Pac-10 honoree Javes Lewis also returns.  The coaches have done a good job of bringing in great recruits in the secondary the past few years; if some of those players can step up and play well, this group can be very good.

Offensive Overview: 

Oregon runs a no-huddle run-based spread offense.  Offensive Coordinator Mark Helfrich has the title, but the offense is really Head Coach Chip Kelly’s brainchild.  He likes to wear his opponents out with a variety of plays that utilize the speed and conditioning of his players.  Ever since Kelly arrived on campus as the offensive coordinator, he has had this offense rolling at maximum efficiency.  With 9 starters returning, expect that trend to continue.

Quarterback Analysis:

This group could either be very good, or very bad.  Fifth-year senior Nate Costa leads a tight QB race with sophomore Darron Thomas right now, but things could easily change in fall camp.  With Costa’s 3 injuries, Thomas brings more mobility to Oregon’s option offense, but Costa is recognized as the superior passer.  Whoever wins out better play well, or this team could be looking at mid-tier bowl berth.

O-Line Analysis:

One of the strongest groups of the offense, as this unit returns the entire two-deep from last year.  Line Coach Steve Greatwood has mustered excellent line play during his entire tenure at Oregon, and this year, he has a lot to work with.  T Bo Thran, as well as Gs Carson York and Mark Asper are pre-season All Pac-10 picks. Expect the line to consistently open up holes and make the new quarterback’s job a lot easier.

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis: 

Oregon has a pretty average group of receivers with more problems than production.  Jeff Maehl, Drew Davis, and Lavasier Tuinei lead a solid if unspectacular group of receivers.  Maehl has been productive in his career and could challenge for All Pac-10 honors, but the rest have left much to be desired.  Injuries (Davis, Blake Cantu), as well as academic (former 4-stars Tyrece Gaines and Diante Jackson) and disciplinary problems (Jamere Holland and Garrett Embry),  have plagued most of this group; leading to the dismissal of several talented players.  True freshman Keanon Lowe and Josh Huff bring much needed speed to the position.  At tight end David Paulson was solid as a backup last year, and JUCO transfer Brandon Williams was solid in spring practices.

Backfield Analysis: 

This is the best unit on the offense.  LaMichael James is a legitimate Heisman candidate, while Kenjon Barner brings a whole new level of speed to the table.  Running backs coach Gary Russell also has high expectations of true freshman Lache Seastrunk and Dontae Williams.  Remene Alston is an experienced backup.

Special Teams Analysis:  

Kicker Rob Beard and punter Jackson Rice bring big legs to the table, which should help the defense immensely.  Beard’s field goal accuracy remains to be seen, but Rice was solid as a true freshman punter last year, and the two should consistently create good field position.  In the return game, Kenjon Barner is as dangerous as it gets.  He’s a breakaway threat every time he touches the ball, and he can change a game instantly (see; the UCLA game last year where he opened the second half with a touchdown return).

Team Schedule:

Saturday Sep. 4 vs. New Mexico

Saturday Sep. 11 @ Tennessee

Saturday Sep. 18 vs. Portland State

Saturday Sep. 25 @ Arizona State

Saturday Oct. 2 vs. Stanford

Saturday Oct. 9 @ Washington State

Thursday Oct. 21 vs. UCLA

Saturday Oct. 30 @ USC

Saturday Nov. 6 vs. Washington

Saturday Nov. 13 @ California

Friday Nov. 26 vs. Arizona

Saturday Dec. 4 @ Oregon State

Best Case Scenario: 

Honestly, if the quarterback play is as good if not better than last year (no small task, mind you) this team could be playing for the national championship come January.  With 17 returning starters off a 10 win team and promising young players, the talent is all there.  Coach Kelly looks like he’s the real deal, and could take this team to unseen heights.

Worst Case Scenario: 

However, if the quarterback play is sub-par and the right players don’t step up on defense, this team could be looking at an 8-4 or 7-5 regular season and a mid/low-tier bowl berth.  We know the running game will still produce so the offense should still be okay, but it won’t be able to score enough without balance.  Also, if the defense doesn’t play well and the team suffers, look for coordinator Nick Aliotti to be on the hot seat.

My Final Conference Standings Predictions: 
1.      Oregon 
2.      Stanford 
3.      USC 
4.      Oregon State 
5.      California 
6.      Washington 
7.      Arizona 
8.      UCLA 
9.      Arizona State 
10. Washington State

by: (Oregon Guru)  Evan Kincl

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