Team Breakdown: Oregon State Beavers

By:

Oregon State Guru (Andy Orear)

Email me at:  osu.guru@pac10guru.com

Oregon State Beavers

Pre-Season Sporting News Ranking:

15

Last year overall record :

8-5 (6-3)

Bowl Game (victor or loser): 

Las Vegas Bowl:  Lost to BYU 44-20

Trending up, down or flat:

Flat

Total Returning Starters:

16 (Eight on offense, eight on defense)

Key Returnees: 

RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Junior.  5”-7”, 188 lbs.  1,440 yards rushing, 78 receptions, 22 touchdowns.   2009 semi-finalist for the Doak Walker Award, Maxwell Award and Walter Camp Player of the Year.

WR James Rodgers, Senior.  5’-7”, 188 lbs.  91 receptions, 1,034 yards receiving, 9 touchdowns.  2010 Biletnikoff Award preseason candidate.

DT Stephen Paea, Junior.  6’-1”, 311 lbs.  43 tackles, 8.5 for lost yardage. Co-recipient of 2009 Morris Trophy as Pac-10’s top defensive lineman.   2010 Outland, Nagurski, Lott Trophy and Rotary Lombardi watch list(s).

OT Michael Phillip, Sophomore.  6’-3”, 307 lbs.  Started 12 games as a true freshman in 2009, named Freshman All-American by Phil Steele’s and College Football News.com.

Key Losses:

QB Sean Canfield

WR Damola Adnejii

LB Keaton Kristick

LB David Pa’aluhi

Key Incoming Transfers:

Defensive Coordinator Mark Banker is hoping newcomer Dominic Glover from Saddleback CC can help with the pass rush.  Glover started his career with Oregon before transferring to Saddleback.  Glover is 6”5”, 270 lbs. and has two years of eligibility remaining.

Key Incoming Freshman:

Not many true freshmen will see action in 2010 barring injury.  RS FR Cody Vaz will back up starting QB Ryan Katz. Look for Terron Ward from De La Salle High School (Concord, CA) to emerge in 2011 as a key back up and eventual replacement for Quizz.  Ward is small in stature, but he is a tough and capable runner in the mold of Jacquizz Rodgers. 

Players Ready for a Breakout Season:

TE Joe Halahuni, Junior – Emerged in the second half of the season in 2009 to catch 25 passes for 3 touchdowns.  Look for him on third downs this season.

WR Jordan Bishop, Sophomore – In 2009, Canfield did an excellent job of spreading out the receptions.  As such, players like Bishop and Markus Wheaton went without much notice.  Bishop was very consistent last year and will play a bigger role in 2010 with the graduation of Adeniji.

C Alex Linnenkohl, Senior – 2010 Rimington Trophy watch list.

Players  who Need to Step it up this Season:

MLB Tony Wilson, Sophomore – When returning starter Pa’aluhi enlisted in the military, Wilson was thrust into into the starting role earlier than expected and will be pressed by sophomore Rueben Robinson.  OSU churns out productive MLB’s and will need big production from Wilson in the middle.

S Lance Mitchell, Junior – Lance, if you bring down Jeramiah Masoli on fourth down in the fourth quarter of last year’s Civil War, the ball goes back into the hands of a red hot Sean Canfield against a very tired Oregon defense with time on the clock, and…who knows?  The guy carrying the ball needs to go down on his rear end, not you.

Key Position Battles:  

MLB: Tony Wilson and Rueben Robinson – Hard to imagine no drop off after losing the productive David Pa’aluhi to the military.

WR:  Darrell Catchings and Markus Wheaton – Catchings is back for his senior year, but expect to see a lot of the athletic sophomore Wheaton.

X-Factor:

QB Ryan Katz, Sophomore.  Katz steps into an experienced offensive line, depth at receiver and a Heisman Trophy candidate at running back.  His 2010 season will be a success if he can stay healthy, manage games effectively, and avoid big mistakes.

Fun Fact:

OSU has gone into the final game of the last two seasons with a trip to Pasadena on the line.  This kind of championship contention is a great sign for the program, but they need to beat their rivals in Eugene to finally emerge as conference champs.

Major Injuries:

OLB Keith Pankey, Senior – Coming back from a ruptured achilles tendon, but head coach Mike Riley has recently commented he will be good to go for the 2010 season.

3 certainties and 3 question marks:  

Certainties: 

1.  The Rodgers brothers:  Productive seasons from their two offensive stars will result in a good outcome to the season.

2.  Coaching staff:  As the rest of the league turns things over, Riley quietly becomes the dean of PAC 10 coaching and consistently holds his staff together.  Riley’s challenge in 2010 is proving he can beat Chip Kelly in the biggest game of the year.

3.  Kicking game:  Three year starters in Justin Kahut at K and Johnny Hekker at P gives needed stability.

Question Marks:

1.  Inexperience at QB:  It has been proven difficult to win in the PAC 10 without consistent play at the QB position.  Ryan Katz is athletic but lacks experience.

2.  Early season schedule:  With two road games in the first three weeks against top 10 opponents, the Beavers can make their season.  They need to avoid injuries and not put Katz in a position of trying to win games coming from behind.

3.  The Secondary:  The Beavs have experience, but are without a proven leader in the secondary. They have also not gotten much help in the way of a pass rush.   They will be tested by Kellen Moore early in the season at Boise State, as well as a slew of talented PAC 10 QBs throughout the season.

Schedule Toughness:

The Beavers have a very tough schedule early on with visits to Cowboys Stadium to play TCU and Boise State with the blue turf.  The Beavers are known for starting slow, so two road trips to national powers in the first three weeks looks challenging.  Early season conference games at Arizona and Washington will be tough tests against emerging programs.  The good news is having USC and the Ducks at home; the bad news is that these teams are still USC and still the Ducks wherever you play them.

Make-or-Break Game:  

At Arizona on 10/9:  The Beavs lost their PAC 10 opener last year at home to Arizona; they need a big win like this early on the schedule to build confidence on the team and in the stands.

Key 3-game Stretch:

A lot is made of the non-conference schedule, but the last three games of the year – USC at home, at Stanford, and Oregon at home - will determine the outcome of the season.  Three wins in that stretch likely equates to a trip to Pasadena on January 1.

Most Challenging Half of the Season: 

The first half looks worse on paper, but the fact is; losses at TCU in Dallas and at BSU do nothing to the Beavers hopes for a conference championship.  The Beaver’s home stretch is as tough as any in the conference.

Team Overview:

The Beavers have experience on both sides of the ball and a great collection of individual talent.  The Rodgers brothers and Stephen Paea are pre-season All Americans.   With the 2009 campaign dominated by Jacquizz and James Rodgers, it is easy to overlook how important Sean Canfield was to this team last year.  He completed three quarters of this throws and kept the Beavers in every game they played.  Incoming QB Ryan Katz will not be expected to perform at the same level, but he must avoid costly mistakes.  Defensively, the Beavers are lead by DT Stephen Paea, but they must also get outside pressure on the QB to give their secondary a chance.  A steady performance by the defense will allow the Beaver offense to control the ball and allow Katz to develop.

Defensive Overview:

Coordinator Mark Banker consistently blends youth and experience into a good result for Oregon State.  DT Stephen Paea is the anchor, but he will have help.  Gabe Miller is a returning starter at DE who must help the Beavers pass rush improve in 2010.  At linebacker, the Beavers return Dwight Roberson and Keith Pankey on the outside; provided Pankey is 100% after off-season achilles surgery.  The secondary is experienced with James Dockery and Brandon Hardin on the corners, and Lance Mitchell and Cameron Collins at safety.  If the pass rush improves and there is not too much pressure on the corners, expect Mitchell and Collins to develop into the type of safety we have seen at OSU in the past with Al Afalava and Sabby Piscatelli.

Front-4 Analysis:  

Paea will attract attention inside, so expect the ends and OLBs to be tested early.  Brennan Olander is a returning starter and big things are expected from newcomer Dominic Glover.  If they Beavers can establish a pass rush, this unit will be a strength.

Linebacker Analysis:

David Pa’ahuli would have been a pre-season all conference pick at MLB, so his loss is a concern.  However, playing behind Stephen Paea should make life easier for Tony Wilson or Ruben Robinson.  OLB Dwight Roberson is a returning starter and the Beavers are hoping Pankey is 100%.

Secondary Analysis: 

All four starters have experience, but their job is difficult with no pressure on the opposing QB.  If the Beavers can rush the passer, the corners can function more independently and the safeties can make big plays.  Again, if the Beavers can rush the passer, this is an experienced secondary that should be able to withstand seeing  Kellen Moore, Nick Foles, Jake Locker,  Matt Barkey, and Andrew Luck. 

Offensive Overview: 

Coordinator Danny Langsdorf will give the ball put the ball in the hands of James and Jaquizz Rodgers until someone can stop them.  Jaquizz has 2,693 career rushing yards and 32 career touchdowns going into his junior year.  New QB Ryan Katz will also have an experienced O line and a stable of talented receivers.  It will be interesting to see who much Langsdorf gives Katz early on, but expect a steady diet of Quizz and James and hope neither misses time.

Quarterback Analysis

Both of Katz’s predecessors – Canfield and Lyle Moeveo – made season-altering mistakes early in their careers.  Hopefully Katz’s first season is mostly handing the ball to Quizz and making high percentage throws.  The defense can help greatly by not putting Katz in a position of trailing late in the game and trying to win the game with long passes downfield.  Depth is a little thin as Peter Lalich recently left the team, leaving RS FR Cody Vaz as back up.

O-Line Analysis

The O-Line Should be a strength with all-conference candidates Michael Phillip at LT and Alex Linnenkhol at center.  Phillip was a blue chip recruit for the Beavers a year ago and was put into the lineup earlier than expected; he more than exceeded  the coaches expectations.  Barring injury, Phillip could leave OSU in two years as a high NFL draft choice.  Mike Remmers is a returning starter at RT, while juniors- Grant Johnson and Burke Ellis- have seen action.

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis: 

Not perceived as a pre-season strength, but the OSU receiving corps has plenty of depth to go along with James Rodgers.  Wide Receivers: Darrell Catchings, Jordan Bishop, and Markus Wheaton all have the size and speed to test Pac-10 secondaries.  Joe Halahuni will play TE and the slot position; he proved to be a big weapon down the stretch in 2009.  This group should give newcomer, Ryan Katz, a chance to emerge at QB.

Backfield Analysis: 

The strength of the team, led by Heisman hopeful Jacquizz Rodgers.  When Quizz went down two years ago at Arizona and missed the Civil War, you saw the weaknesses it exposed.  The Beavs need to keep him healthy, which could be challenge against TCU and BSU, games which will require Quizz to carry the load.  Often overlooked is Quizz’s ability as a receiver, last year he had 78 receptions.  Sophomore Jovan Stephenson and Senior Ryan McCants will provide adequate backup, but there is no replacement for The Quizz Show.

Special Teams Analysis:  

Special teams should be a strength with kicker Justin Kahut and punter Johnny Hekker coming into their third years as starters.  James Rogers and Jordan Bishop will makes things exciting on returns.

Team Schedule:

9/4 vs. TCU (Dallas)

9/18 vs. Louisville

9/25 at Boise State

10/1 vs. Arizona State

10/9 @ Arizona

10/16 @ Washington

10/30 vs. California

11/6 @ UCLA

11/13 vs. Washington State

11/20 vs. USC

11/27 @ Stanford

12/4 vs. Oregon

Best Case Scenario: 

The advantage of the tough non-conference schedule, is that wins at TCU and BSU vault the Beavers into the top 5 and put Jacquizz Rodgers at the head of the Heisman race.  The Beavers can survive an early season conference loss to either Arizona or Washington on the road to then run the table the rest of the way.  The Rose Bowl berth again comes down to the Civil War.  This time the Beavers have home field advantage and a healthy starting lineup; they win in OT.  Pack your bags for Pasadena.

Worst Case Scenario: 

Easy prediction: no Rodgers brothers means anything doing for OSU.  If Jacquizz and/or James goes down to an early injury, the Beavs might struggle to get to .500.  Ryan Katz needs stability in his break-in year.  OSU cannot rely on him to win games by himself.  The starting lineup for the Beavers will compete with every team in the conference, but a couple of injuries to key players and the Beavers will struggle.

My Final Conference Standings Predictions:  

1.  Oregon State

2.  USC

3.  Oregon

4.  Arizona

5.  California

6.  Stanford

7.  Washington

8.  UCLA

9.  Arizona State

10. Washington State

By:

Oregon State Guru (Andy Orear)

Email me at:  osu.guru@pac10guru.com

Upcoming Article: “Team Breakdown: Washington Huskies”

Followed By: “Team Breakdown: Stanford Cardinal”

Team Breakdown: Oregon Ducks

by:
Oregon Guru (Evan Kincl)
Email me at: oregon.guru@pac10guru.com

Oregon Ducks

Pre-Season Sporting News Ranking:

11

Last year overall record:

10-3 (8-1)

Bowl Game:

Rose Bowl: Lost to Ohio State 26-17

Trending up, down or flat:  

Anywhere from flat to slightly up.

Total Returning Starters:   

17 (9 offense, 8 defense)

Key Returnees:

HB LaMichael James (1,546 yards rushing, 14 rush TDs)

WR Jeff Maehl (53 catches for 696 yards and 6 TDs)

DE Kenny Rowe (11.5 sacks)

CB Talmadge Jackson (4 INTs)

FS John Boyett (90 tackles, 3 INTs) 

Oregon also returns the entire offensive line from a unit that ranked 7^th in the country in rushing, and only allowed 14 sacks.

Key Losses:

QB Jeremiah Masoli

TE Ed Dickson

CB Walter Thurmond

FS TJ Ward

DE Will Tukuafu

Key Incoming Transfers:  

TE Brandon Williams: A JUCO transfer that has impressed in Spring practices and looks to see a lot of playing time.

Key Incoming Freshman:

RB Lache Seastrunk: A lightning fast kid from Texas could enter the year as a primary kick returner, could easily see a few touches on offense as well. 

WR/RB Josh Huff: Enters fall camp taking a lot of snaps at the Tazer position, a flex WR/RB spot.  His speed and versatility could get him on the field early.

Players Ready for a Breakout Season:  

QB Darron Thomas: Reminds a lot of coaches of former Oregon QB Dennis Dixon. Has a tough task of replacing Jeremiah Masoli, but only if he wins the starting job over Sr. Nate Costa in fall camp. 

WR Jeff Maehl: Although he was Oregon’s leading receiver last year, he’s hardly a household name. Expect that to change, as Maehl and his steady hands came on strong at the end of last season and he should challenge for All Pac-10 recognition in his senior year.

CB Cliff Harris: Harris, only a sophomore, spent last season mostly as a reserve due to his perceived lack of discipline and tackling ability.  When he made it onto the field, he often looked like the best corner Oregon had in years; and with Walter Thurmond III graduated, he could challenge for a wide open starting corner spot.

Players who need to step up this season:

WR DJ Davis: Davis isn’t necessarily a bad player, but injuries have really disrupted the career of this talented former 4-star.  He only has 31 career catches, which he’ll need to match or exceed this year alone in order to have the impact needed from a starting wideout.

Key Position Battles:  

QB- Easily the biggest issue with this team. Sr. Nate Costa is listed as the starter right now, but coach Chip Kelly says he and the more mobile Darron Thomas are about equal.

CB- Talmadge Jackson III has the first spot locked down, but any one of So. Cliff Harris, Sr. Anthony Gildon, Fr. Terrance Mitchell, or Fr. Avery Patterson could step in and see significant time in this spot.

X-Factor:

The QB play: This team is loaded with talent and was an early pre-season #4 before Jeremiah Masoli got kicked off the team.  If whoever replaces him plays well, this team has serious Pac-10 championship aspirations, and possibly more.

Fun Fact:  

Oregon typically uses more uniform combinations in one season than most teams will go through in an entire decade.

Major Injuries:

None.

3 certainties and 3 question marks:  

Certainties:

1)     Offensive line play: Oregon returns the entire offensive line two-deep from a very strong unit a year ago.

2)     Running Backs: With a returning 1^st team All Pac-10 pick in LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, his lightning fast backup who is also a premier return man, a steady senior in Remene Alston, and two top-15 RBs for incoming freshman (Lache Seastrunk and Dontae Williams), this is easily the deepest position on the team.

3)     Another trip to a bowl game: You can book it right now; the Oregon Ducks will be attending another bowl game this year.  With a team this talented, an FCS opponent AND Wazzu on the schedule, you can bet your life savings on this happening.

Question Marks:

1)     Quarterback play: Again, here we are talking about the quarterbacks.  I don’t want to bore everyone with this subject, but this team can only reach its goals if they receive good play from whoever wins the QB job.

2)     Expectations: Last year, not many people saw Oregon as a serious threat to Pac-10 king USC, especially after the loss to Boise St.  They thrived all year on bouncing back from adversity, but it will be interesting to see how they deal with having a target on their backs.

3)     Defense: Nick Aliotti has had some good defenses over the years, but for Oregon to take the next step, his defenses will have to come close to the dominance of Chip Kelly’s offense.  There is certainly enough returning talent for that to be so.  Oregon lost the Stanford game as well as the Rose Bowl because they couldn’t get the opposing offense off the field.  If that happens again this season, Aliotti could be in trouble.

Schedule Toughness:

Oregon only gets 4 Pac-10 games at home, and has 5 on the road, including Cal, Oregon State, and USC.  They also have an interesting and potentially difficult away game against Tennessee with new coach Derek Dooley.  This does not make for a very favorable schedule for a team that thrives on a raucous Autzen crowd.  Luckily, they get to face FCS opponent Portland State, New Mexico, and have one road game at WSU.

Make-or-Break Game:

Sat. Oct. 2 vs. Stanford:  This game will show whether Oregon is truly a championship caliber team, because if a tough Stanford team comes in and knocks them off for the second year in a row (at home this time), things don’t bode well for their Pac-10 hopes.

Key 3-Game Stretch:

Oct. 30^th to Nov. 13^th: USC, UW, Cal.  What more needs to be said? These are three of the projected top teams in the Pac-10; how Oregon fares during this stretch could determine their outcome in the conference.

Most Challenging Half of the Season: 

By far,  the second half of the season will be the toughest.  The first half includes games against WSU, New Mexico, Portland State, and Arizona State.  Almost all of the top Pac-10 teams are scheduled for late season showdowns, which could determine the conference race.

Team Overview:  Oregon returns a supremely talented team that won 10 games a year ago.  Most experts have the Ducks pegged for another trip to Rose Bowl, and I’m inclined to agree.  There is simply too much returning talent at key positions with the only real question being quarterback play.  But with star tailback LaMichael James and a veteran offensive line, the new QB’s job should be a lot easier than at most schools.  Regardless of who plays in his system, head coach Chip Kelly has always put points on the board.  The defense has been less reliable, but plays with passion, and has more talent this year than most.  Although there are a few questions, there are certainly more answers.

Defensive Overview:  

Oregon runs an aggressive 4-3 defense with a few 3-4 sets mixed in.  Longtime defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti likes to bring heavy pressure to disrupt running lanes and make the opposing offense one-dimensional. He also favors a smaller, faster lineup on the field that allows him to keep up with no huddle offenses with minimal substitutions.  This approach has been met with varied success over his career.  But for the most part last year the defense was solid, with their stats inflated by having an offense that scored at the speed of light.

Front-4 Analysis:  

Oregon returns DT Brandon Bair and DE Kenny Rowe on the defensive line, a defense which performed decently last year.  It remains an average group until they find a complementary pass-rusher to Rowe, who was outstanding with 11.5 sacks last year.  The depth is not very good, but freshman Ricky Heimuli has a ton of talent and could see early action.

Linebacker Analysis:

This is easily the strongest group of the defense.  They return Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews who have both been consistent starters.  Coaches view the talent on the depth chart to be so deep that they moved Eddie Pleasant (a starter last year) over to safety. Highly touted former 4-star JUCO transfer Bryson Littlejohn is expected to start in his place.

Secondary Analysis:

This unit has the potential to be one of the best in the conference if players step up and play to their talents.  Talmadge Jackson is solid at one corner spot, while FS John Boyett earned freshman All-America honors last year.  Starting SS Eddie Pleasant was a very good LB who the coaches felt comfortable moving to safety.  Versatile All Pac-10 honoree Javes Lewis also returns.  The coaches have done a good job of bringing in great recruits in the secondary the past few years; if some of those players can step up and play well, this group can be very good.

Offensive Overview: 

Oregon runs a no-huddle run-based spread offense.  Offensive Coordinator Mark Helfrich has the title, but the offense is really Head Coach Chip Kelly’s brainchild.  He likes to wear his opponents out with a variety of plays that utilize the speed and conditioning of his players.  Ever since Kelly arrived on campus as the offensive coordinator, he has had this offense rolling at maximum efficiency.  With 9 starters returning, expect that trend to continue.

Quarterback Analysis:

This group could either be very good, or very bad.  Fifth-year senior Nate Costa leads a tight QB race with sophomore Darron Thomas right now, but things could easily change in fall camp.  With Costa’s 3 injuries, Thomas brings more mobility to Oregon’s option offense, but Costa is recognized as the superior passer.  Whoever wins out better play well, or this team could be looking at mid-tier bowl berth.

O-Line Analysis:

One of the strongest groups of the offense, as this unit returns the entire two-deep from last year.  Line Coach Steve Greatwood has mustered excellent line play during his entire tenure at Oregon, and this year, he has a lot to work with.  T Bo Thran, as well as Gs Carson York and Mark Asper are pre-season All Pac-10 picks. Expect the line to consistently open up holes and make the new quarterback’s job a lot easier.

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis: 

Oregon has a pretty average group of receivers with more problems than production.  Jeff Maehl, Drew Davis, and Lavasier Tuinei lead a solid if unspectacular group of receivers.  Maehl has been productive in his career and could challenge for All Pac-10 honors, but the rest have left much to be desired.  Injuries (Davis, Blake Cantu), as well as academic (former 4-stars Tyrece Gaines and Diante Jackson) and disciplinary problems (Jamere Holland and Garrett Embry),  have plagued most of this group; leading to the dismissal of several talented players.  True freshman Keanon Lowe and Josh Huff bring much needed speed to the position.  At tight end David Paulson was solid as a backup last year, and JUCO transfer Brandon Williams was solid in spring practices.

Backfield Analysis: 

This is the best unit on the offense.  LaMichael James is a legitimate Heisman candidate, while Kenjon Barner brings a whole new level of speed to the table.  Running backs coach Gary Russell also has high expectations of true freshman Lache Seastrunk and Dontae Williams.  Remene Alston is an experienced backup.

Special Teams Analysis:  

Kicker Rob Beard and punter Jackson Rice bring big legs to the table, which should help the defense immensely.  Beard’s field goal accuracy remains to be seen, but Rice was solid as a true freshman punter last year, and the two should consistently create good field position.  In the return game, Kenjon Barner is as dangerous as it gets.  He’s a breakaway threat every time he touches the ball, and he can change a game instantly (see; the UCLA game last year where he opened the second half with a touchdown return).

Team Schedule:

Saturday Sep. 4 vs. New Mexico

Saturday Sep. 11 @ Tennessee

Saturday Sep. 18 vs. Portland State

Saturday Sep. 25 @ Arizona State

Saturday Oct. 2 vs. Stanford

Saturday Oct. 9 @ Washington State

Thursday Oct. 21 vs. UCLA

Saturday Oct. 30 @ USC

Saturday Nov. 6 vs. Washington

Saturday Nov. 13 @ California

Friday Nov. 26 vs. Arizona

Saturday Dec. 4 @ Oregon State

Best Case Scenario: 

Honestly, if the quarterback play is as good if not better than last year (no small task, mind you) this team could be playing for the national championship come January.  With 17 returning starters off a 10 win team and promising young players, the talent is all there.  Coach Kelly looks like he’s the real deal, and could take this team to unseen heights.

Worst Case Scenario: 

However, if the quarterback play is sub-par and the right players don’t step up on defense, this team could be looking at an 8-4 or 7-5 regular season and a mid/low-tier bowl berth.  We know the running game will still produce so the offense should still be okay, but it won’t be able to score enough without balance.  Also, if the defense doesn’t play well and the team suffers, look for coordinator Nick Aliotti to be on the hot seat.

My Final Conference Standings Predictions: 
1.      Oregon 
2.      Stanford 
3.      USC 
4.      Oregon State 
5.      California 
6.      Washington 
7.      Arizona 
8.      UCLA 
9.      Arizona State 
10. Washington State

by: (Oregon Guru)  Evan Kincl

Upcoming Article: "Team Breakdown: Oregon State Beavers"
Followed By: "Team Breakdown: Washington Huskies"